The war in the Middle East that has closed the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz is a challenge for container shipping but not on the scale of the pandemic, industry analyst Lars Jensen told TPM26 delegates, reports New York’s Journal of Commerce.
Mr Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said about two million TEU of cargo bound for the Gulf will be affected, with much of it offloaded at ports around the Strait of Hormuz. He stressed that while capacity will contract, the disruption is limited compared with the Red Sea diversions of 2023-24.
The analyst noted that importers had expected Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast traffic to return to the Suez Canal this year, but the war has extended the need for diversions around Africa. He said carriers will retain pricing leverage as supply and demand remain tight.
Mr Jensen added that container lines are unlikely to resume Suez Canal transits for at least six months, even if the conflict ends immediately. Major carriers have largely avoided the Red Sea route since late 2023 after Houthi attacks on shipping linked to the Gaza war.
Rising oil prices will push up bunker costs, prompting carriers to impose emergency fuel and conflict surcharges across trades. Mr Jensen warned that even shippers on the Asia-US West Coast will face higher costs and congestion due to knock-on effects in
